National versus Local Climatic Variability and Implications for Communities in Protected Areas: The Case of Lake Malawi National Park

Abstract

Understanding the rainfall dynamics of a nation/region is key to decision-making, especially regarding agriculture within protected areas. This study focused on the area of Cape Maclear and the adjacent villages located within the Lake Malawi National Park (LMNP). By gaining insight into how communities whose agricultural activities interact with protected areas operate, we can gain insight into the long-term sustainability of the LMNP. This study aimed to assess the historical rainfall dynamics for Cape Maclear using 35-year annual rainfall and temperature data. Rainfall trends were established and compared with recorded events. The results indicated that Cape Maclear rainfall trends resonate with reported national drought events, though with variations. This provides a proxy possibility of making localized predictions of such events. Analysis of the return period shows annual rainfall of between 500-900 mm occurs every 2-3 years, indicating no significant shifts from what has been observed in the past. Due to the sensitivity and fragility of the LMNP ecosystem, there is a need to design local solutions for the communities living within the park to enable them to better prepare for future climatic shocks, especially rainfall inadequacies.