Host: Japan Society of Kansei Engineering
Name : The 7th International Symposium on Affective Science and Engineering
Number : 7
Location : Online Academic Symposium
Date : March 09, 2021
We have modelled the effect of the lockdown during the first wave of COVID-19. We used SEIR type of model with a certain time lag between infection and becoming infectious. Firstly we confirmed the timing of the change of the coefficient of infection, growth rate of confirmed cases, corresponds to the change of mobility index, and secondly we assume the change of the coefficient of infection, activity index β (analogous to R0) and fit the parameter to reproduce the actual number of confirmed cases. Finally, we assume that the activity index β is roughly proportional to the square of the mobility and fit the parameters. The curves in various countries fits reasonably well in any cases, but estimating β from various parameters (including temperature) in the long term remains as an important task.
