Time-series Modeling of Evacuees in Large-scale Disasters Considering Number of Potential Evacuees

Abstract

Management of evacuation centers and flexible support of supplies are required when a largescale disaster occurs. It is necessary to predict demand in order to transport relief goods quickly and appropriately to evacuation centers. Therefore, it is effective to predict the number of refugees in evacuation centers. Generally, the supply and demand trends vary not only due to the scale of the earthquake disaster but also depending on the occurrence situation, power outages and other conditions. In this study, we propose a dynamic model for predicting the number of evacuees. The effectiveness of the proposed model is illustrated by numerical example about case study of the Kumamoto earthquake.