Transactions of the Institute of Systems, Control and Information Engineers
Online ISSN : 2185-811X
Print ISSN : 1342-5668
ISSN-L : 1342-5668
Modeling Decision Analysis for Mitigating Natural Disaster Risks
Hiroyuki TAMURAKouji YAMAMOTOKatsuhiro AKAZAWAKouichi TAJI
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2000 Volume 13 Issue 6 Pages 268-275

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Abstract

In this paper, we show that a value function under risk is useful to model low probability and high consequence damage events like an earthquake for which expected utility theory is inadequate. Firstly, we assume alternatives to improve buildings, some scenarios of earthquakes, costs to improve buildings, probability of death and injury and cost of restoring building's damage for each scenario. Then, we show that the value function under risk is an appropriate approach to model and analyze decision making process with low probability and high consequence events.

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