2013 Volume 53 Issue 6 Pages 1028-1041
In the steelmaking and continuous casting (SMCC) production process, the operation time delay often occurs which may lead to planned casting break or processing conflict so that the initial scheduling plan becomes unrealizable. Existing rescheduling methods with disturbances firstly classify the disturbances according to the disturbance type and disturbance quantity only by artificial experience or rules, and then directly adjust initial scheduling plan with corresponding rescheduling method. Those methods don’t analyze the influence degree of disturbances to the initial scheduling plan in detail, so the adjustment degree of initial scheduling plan is always too greater, which leads to the poor continuity and stability of initial scheduling plan. In this paper, the relation among operation time delay, planned casting break and processing conflict is deeply analyzed. Then a novel prediction method for abnormal condition of scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance in SMCC production process is proposed including disturbance identification of operating time delay based on event-driven mechanism, analysis on charges based on reachability matrix, analysis on influence degree of disturbance and abnormal condition decision of initial scheduling plan. As a result, the real-time application shows that the proposed prediction method can timely and accurately predict the abnormal condition of the scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance in SMCC production process, which can only adjust the affected charges that must to be rescheduled in the initial scheduling plan and reduce the frequency of complete rescheduling. The initial scheduling plan can also maintain the good continuity and stability.
The SMCC production process is the core working procedure in modern large steel plant. Due to the process complexity, a large number of machines and frequent changes of the production environment, operation time delay often occurs which may lead to planned casting break or processing conflict so that the initial scheduling plan becomes unrealizable. It is of great significance to quickly and effectively adjust scheduling plan to ensure steel quality and production stability.
Nowadays the studies of rescheduling method for abnormal condition of scheduling plan with disturbances mainly focus on schedule repair and complete rescheduling according to the disturbance type and disturbance quantity. Right-shift rescheduling is adopted for smaller time delay disturbance, which means to reschedule by globally shifting the remaining operations schedule forwards in time. For the quality disturbance, equipment failure or excessive time delay, total rescheduling is used to adjust scheduling plan without consideration of the initial schedule.1) If disturbance event is very large impact on production, complete rescheduling is needed which includes production path planning and production time scheduling.2) An algorithm for rescheduling the affected operations in a job shop is presented in order to preserve as much as possible the robustness of the initial schedule, which is different from the right-shift rescheduling and complete rescheduling.3) However, the research on scheduling method for SMCC production process focuses on static scheduling problem,4,5,6) and rescheduling methods are rarely addressed. The development of a knowledge model including task, inference and domain, which describes the reasoning process in managing schedule disturbance in steel-making, is presented.7) A constraint-based approach for steelmaking-continuous casting rescheduling problem is presented for machine failure.8,9,10) A real-time scheduling method is advanced with disturbances event considering four major categories, and a rescheduling algorithm of backward method and hybrid intelligent method is proposed.11) A general framework for using real time information to improve scheduling decisions is developed, and general measures of utility and stability are defined to evaluate strategies for deal with the deal time information.12)
Existing rescheduling methods with disturbances firstly classify the disturbances according to the disturbance type and disturbance quantity only by artificial experience or rules, and then directly adjust initial scheduling plan with corresponding rescheduling method. Those methods include schedule repair for part of charges, complete time rescheduling only adjusting operation time and complete rescheduling including production path planning and production time scheduling. Above methods don’t analyze the influence degree of disturbances to the initial scheduling plan in detail, so the adjustment degree of initial scheduling plan is always too greater, which leads to the poor continuity and stability of initial scheduling plan.
In this paper, the disturbance type, disturbance point and disturbance value are firstly determined according to the disturbance event information. Secondly, affected charges are analyzed based on reachability matrix. Then the prediction models of abnormal condition decision of initial scheduling plan without considering buffers and with considering buffers are established to analyze influence degree of operation time delay disturbance to planned casting break and processing conflict, respectively. Finally, abnormal condition of initial scheduling plan is predicted. As a result, the real-time application shows that the proposed prediction method can timely and accurately predict the abnormal condition of the scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance in SMCC production process, which can only adjust the affected charges in the initial scheduling plan and reduce the frequency of complete rescheduling. The initial scheduling plan can also maintain the good continuity and stability.
The paper is organized as follows. In Section 2, we describe the SMCC production process and the scheduling plan of SMCC production process. The abnormal condition of planned casting break and processing conflict is defined. Section 3 presents a novel prediction strategy for abnormal condition of scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance in SMCC production process. In Section 4, a novel prediction method for abnormal condition of scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance in SMCC production process is proposed, which includes disturbance identification of operating time delay based on event-driven mechanism, analysis on charges based on reachability matrix, analysis on influence degree of disturbance and abnormal condition decision of initial scheduling plan. Section 5 presents industrial application in Baosteel factory of China. Finally, conclusions are outlined in Section 6.
Molten steel is firstly smelt in the converter. Then one ladle carries molten steel from one converter to the refining process. Molten steel in the ladle is transported to the continuous caster after refined. One ladle carrying molten steel on the processing of all processes, and the transportation of the ladle among the processes are called a Charge. Molten steel in one charge is exactly from one converter and is exactly carried by one ladle. Each charge processed on each machine is regarded as an Operation at the processing stage. The operation type and operation number of charge must meet the process requirement. All charges which are continuously drained into the same tundish in a continuous caster are called a Cast.
We denote Lij for the jth charge of the ith cast, and i = 1,..., N, j = 1,..., ni, where N indicates the total cast number and ni represents the total charge number of the ith cast. Each charge Lij consists of θij operations (oij1,..., oi,j,θij). Initial SMCC scheduling plan solution S0 includes the initial processing machine 
When operation time delay at time t leads to casting break or operation time conflict, the original scheduling plan S0 becomes unrealizable. It is important to analyze the influence degree of disturbances to the initial scheduling plan in detail in order to maintain the good continuity and stability.
2.2. Operation Time DelayThe actual operation time of charges will often deviate from the initial operation time of charges due to random factors, such as proficiency of operators, environmental parameters, etc. Such deviation is called operation time delay which includes starting time delay and completion time delay according the different time points.
2.2.1. Starting Time DelayAs one of raw materials for converters, molten irons of high temperature are transported by torpedo car from the blast furnace to the steelmaking plant and are poured into the ladles, and are finally poured into converters from ladles. During the transportation, molten irons need to be processed by the former slag, desulfurization, posterior slag. In those processes, the actual starting time of charges will be often later than the initial starting time because of proficiency of operators, environmental parameters, etc.
The production scheduling in SMCC production process mainly considers main equipment (converters, refining furnaces, and continuous casting machines). But in the actual production process, incoordination between the scheduling of auxiliary equipment and the scheduling of main equipment will result that crane and trolley can not be in place in time, which leads to starting time delay at refining stage.
We denote the 
| (1) | 
Due to a variety of random factors, such as the impact of machine failure, the proficiency of the operation of workers, environmental parameters, etc, it is hard to get accurate processing time and can only get an approximate data or data range for processing time of the molten steel in the equipment. In the actual production process, the processing time of charge is closely related to the molten steel temperature and components. With the changes of these factors, the actual processing time is also changing and is often different from initial processing time.
We denote the 
| (2) | 
Abnormal conditions of scheduling plan in SMCC production process mainly include planned casting break and processing conflict.
(1) Planned casting break
Casting break means that continuous caster can not pull out the slab through the mold because of a variety of reasons which results that continuous casting process is interrupted. In this paper, we divide casting break into “unplanned casting break” and “planned casting break”. Unplanned casting break is that molten steel can not enter the mold for condensation because of nozzle clogging for low temperature of molten steel, nozzle clogging of ladle, nozzle clogging of tundish, etc. Unplanned casting break actually occurs in the production process. The following preventive measures can be adopted to reduce the number of occurrences of unplanned casting break: improving qualified rate of molten steel temperature in tundish, improving the cleanliness of molten steel, calcium treatment in molten steel, and etc. Planned casting break is that other factors affects the initial scheduling plan which results that some molten steel can not reach steel ladle turret in time according to initial scheduling plan and continuous casting is interrupted in the future because of molten steel supply interruption. Planned casting break is not what actually happened in the production process. It means that some factors, such as operation time delay, affect the initial scheduling plan, and if production is still going on according to the initial scheduling plan, then casting break will happen in the future.
If planned casting break occurs between charge Li,j–1 and Lij, then abnormal conditions of scheduling plan can be divided into the following four conditions:
■ One-level planned casting break. It can resolve the planned casting break between charge Li,j–1 and Lij only by adjusting the processing time of Li,j–1 at continuous casting stage, or only by adjusting the processing time of Lij at each stage.
■ Two-level planned casting break. It can not resolve the planned casting break between charge Li,j–1 and Lij only by adjusting the processing time of Li,j–1 at continuous casting stage, or only by adjusting the processing time of Lij at each stage. But the planned casting break between charge Li,j–1 and Lij can be resolved synchronously by adjusting the processing time of Li,j–1 at continuous casting stage and the processing time of Lij at each stage.
■ Three-level planned casting break. It can not resolve the planned casting break between charge Li,j–1 and Lij synchronously by adjusting the processing time of Li,j–1 at continuous casting stage and the processing time of Lij at each stage. But the planned casting break between charge Li,j–1 and Lij can be resolved synchronously by adjusting the processing time of Lij1 (j1 ≤ j) at each stage.
■ Four-level planned casting break. It can not resolve the planned casting break between charge Li,j–1 and Lij synchronously by adjusting the processing time of Lij1 (j1 ≤ j) at each stage. But the planned casting break between charge Li,j–1 and Lij can be resolved synchronously by adjusting the processing machines of Lij1 (j1 ≤ j) at steelmaking stage and at refining stage, and by adjusting the processing time of Lij1 (j1 ≤ j) at each stage.
(2) Processing conflict
SMCC process is a non-preemptive processing, which means that when one operation is being processed on the machine, other operations are prohibited to preempt the same machine. Once one operation begins to be processed, it is not allowed to interrupt until the processing finishes. If processing conflict occurs between charge Li1j1 and Li2j2 on machine mgb, then abnormal conditions of processing conflict can be divided into the following five conditions:
■ One-level processing conflict. It can resolve the processing conflict between charge Li1j1 and Li2j2 only by adjusting the processing time of Li1j1 on machine mgb, or only by adjusting the processing time of Li2j2 on machine mgb.
■ Two-level processing conflict. It can not resolve the processing conflict between charge Li1j1 and Li2j2 only by adjusting the processing time of Li1j1 on machine mgb, or only by adjusting the processing time of Li2j2 on machine mgb. But the processing conflict between charge Li1j1 and Li2j2 can be resolved synchronously by adjusting the processing time of Li1j1 and Li2j2.
■ Three-level processing conflict. It can not resolve the processing conflict between charge Li1j1 and Li2j2 synchronously by adjusting the processing time of Li1j1 and Li2j2 on machine mgb. But the processing conflict between charge Li1j1 and Li2j2 can be resolved synchronously by adjusting the processing time of Li1j1 and Li2j2 on each stage.
■ Four-level processing conflict. It can not resolve the processing conflict between charge Li1j1 and Li2j2 synchronously by adjusting the processing time of Li1j1 and Li2j2 on each stage. But the processing conflict between charge Li1j1 and Li2j2 can be resolved synchronously by adjusting the processing time of Li1j1, Li2j2 and other charges on each stage.
■ Five-level processing conflict. It can not resolve the processing conflict between charge Li1j1 and Li2j2 synchronously by adjusting the processing time of Li1j1, Li2j2 and other charges on each stage. But the processing conflict between charge Li1j1 and Li2j2 may be resolved synchronously by adjusting the processing machines and processing time of Li1j1, Li2j2 and other charges on each stage.
A four-stage prediction strategy for abnormal condition of scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance in SMCC production process is proposed as shown in Fig. 1, which includes: disturbance identification of operating time delay based on event-driven mechanism, analysis on charges based on reachability matrix, analysis on influence degree of disturbance and abnormal condition decision of initial scheduling plan.

Prediction strategy for abnormal condition of scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance in SMCC production process.
(1) Disturbance identification of operating time delay based on event-driven mechanism
Disturbance identification of operating time delay based on event-driven mechanism compares the actual starting time 
(2) Analysis on charges based on reachability matrix
Analysis on charges based on reachability matrix is to analyze the charges which are affected by the disturbance identification result Y according to the initial processing machine 
(3) Analysis on influence degree of disturbance
Analysis on influence degree of disturbance analyzes the influence degree of disturbance on charges from O according to the disturbance identification result Y, initial scheduling plan S0, the minimum processing time 
(4) Abnormal condition decision of initial scheduling plan
Abnormal condition decision of initial scheduling plan predicts the abnormal condition according to the influence degree result T. The H indicates the abnormal condition result, and H = {m,o1,o2,ζ}. The m denotes the machine on which disturbance occurs. The o1 and o2 indicate operations with disturbance, respectively. We define the ζ as the abnormal condition type, and ζ ∈ {ζ11,ζ12,ζ13,ζ14,ζ21,ζ22,ζ23,ζ24,ζ25}. The ζ11, ζ12, ζ13 and ζ14 denote one-level planned casting break, two-level planned casting break, three-level planned casting break and four-level planned casting break, respectively. The ζ21, ζ22, ζ23, ζ24 and ζ25 represent one-level processing conflict, two-level processing conflict, three-level processing conflict, four-level processing conflict and five-level processing conflict, respectively.
In the SMCC production process, once the operation is being processed or finished, dynamic event information collected from actual production includes the machine code m, operation o, processing status type χ, occurrence time of processing status t. If processing status is starting, then χ = 1. If processing status has been finished, then χ = 2. Disturbance identification model is established according above dynamic event information as follows:
| (3) | 
Step1: Initialize the scheduling information: 
Step2: Initialize the operations processing status: ∀oijk ∈ O, 
Step3: If event occurs, then get event information: machine code m, operation o, processing status type χ, occurrence time of processing status t. Select the operation oi1j1k1 from O which oi1j1k1 is equal to operation o. If χ = 1, then go to the next step, else go to Step5.
Step4: Let 
Step5: Let 
Step6: Get the final disturbance identification result Y, and Y = {o,m,y,τ}.
4.2. Analysis on Charges Based on Reachability MatrixIn the SMCC production, it must have been processed on the former operation oijk and then it can be processed on the next operation oi,j,k+1 for each charge. The adjacent charges in the same machine must be processed one by one. So, when operation time delay of one operation occurs, it will affects other operations and scheduling performance, even make the initial scheduling plan become unrealizable. It firstly needs to analyze the charges which are affected by the disturbance identification in order to analyze the influence degree of disturbances to the initial scheduling plan S0. The working status of each machine is divided into idle, processing the first operation or middle operation of one charge and processing the last operation of one charge. We define the □, ○, △ as those three status, respectively. The interval time between adjacent operations from the same charge is the sum of the transportation time and waiting time, which is indicated as ellipse. The scheduling plan including two charges is as shown in Fig. 2(a). L11 = {o111,o112,o113} and L12 = {o121,o122,o123}. Operations of each charge are processed by 1LD, 1RH and 1CC. The time constraints relationship between operations of charge L11 and L12 is shown in Fig. 2(b). The node 2 and node 4 denote operation o111 and operation o121 on machine 1LD, respectively. The node 8 and node 10 denote operation o112 and operation o122 on machine 1RH, respectively. The node 14 and node 15 denote operation o113 and operation o123 on machine 1CC, respectively. The node 5 denotes the interval time between operation o111 and operation o112. The node 6 denotes the interval time between operation o121 and operation o122. The node 11 and node 12 denote the interval time between operation o112 and operation o113 and the interval time between operation o122 and operation o123, respectively. The nodes 1, 3, 7, 9, 13 indicate the idle time.

The time constraints relationship between operations of charges.
The arrows between operations indicate the influence direction of operating time delay as shown in Fig. 2(b). For example, the arrows between operations on the same machine represent that the operating time delay of former operation will cause the operating time delay of the subsequent other operation. The arrows between operations on the different machine denote that the operating time delay of former operation will cause the operating time delay of the subsequent operation from the same charge.
The reachability matrix R, which reflects the system node connectivity in graph theory, is introduced to represent the interaction relationship between operations in order to analyze the influence degree of disturbances to the initial scheduling plan S0. R can be obtained by the adjacency matrix C which indicates the adjacency relationship of nodes. The adjacency matrix C is defined as follows:
| (4) | 
| (5) | 
The reachability matrix R can be obtained by the adjacency matrix C as follows:
| (6) | 
If there exists directed path from the node l1 to the node l2, then rl1l2 = 1, else rl1l2 = 0. When one node l task represented by ○ in Fig. 2(b) delays, it will only make other node task delay which is connected with the node l and does not make other node task delay which is not connected with the node l. It can clearly identify the operations which are affected by operation time delay by the reachability matrix. The reachability matrix in Fig. 2(b) is as follows:
| (7) | 
It can find all operations which are affected by operation time delay by the reachability matrix. When node l delays Δt minutes, then the node which is connected with the node l will also delay Δt minutes.
When the starting time of the node l0 denoting the operation oijk1 delays Δt minutes, that is Δt = 
| (8) | 
| (9) | 
| (10) | 
| (11) | 
| (12) | 
| (13) | 
| (14) | 
| (15) | 
When the delay time of operation oijk1 is Δt, then the new starting time of oi,j,θij can be recalculated as follows according to the formula (8) to formula (13):
| (16) | 
| (17) | 
| (18) | 
When the operation delay time of oijk1 is Δt, we can obtain the processing conflict time and the planned casting break time according to the formula (15) and (18). If the node l0 has the buffer function, then the operation time delay of the subsequent connected node can be reduced through the buffer function. Supposing that the buffer time of the node l0 is T, then the operation time delay of the subsequent connected node is Δt – T. If Δt – T < 0, then the operation time of the subsequent connected node will not delay. When the operation delay time of node l1 is Δt, the buffer units of scheduling system in SMCC production process are as follows:
(1) The idle time on machines. If the node l1 connects to the node of the idle time, then the node of the idle time will play the role of time compensation. Supposing that the idle time is T, then the operation time delay of the subsequent connected node is Δt – T. If Δt – T < 0, then the operation time of the subsequent connected node will not delay.
(2) Adjustment range of processing time of charge on the machine. We can only get a range of processing time of operations because the processing time of operations is affected by randomness. The processing time includes the minimum processing time 
(3) The interval time between adjacent operations of the same charge. SMCC process is a non-preemptive processing, which means that when one operation is being processed on the machine, other operations are prohibited to preempt the same machine. Once one operation begins to be processed, it is not allowed to interrupt until the processing finishes. If the interval time between adjacent operations of the same charge includes the waiting time, then it has the buffer function. Supposing that the interval time between oijk and oi,j,k+1 is 
The buffer matrix is defined as follows according to the above analysis:
| (19) | 
(1) If the node l is the node of the idle time T, then
| (20) | 
(2) If the node l indicates the operation oijk of the charge, then
| (21) | 
(3) If the node l denotes the interval time between adjacent operations of the same charge, then
| (22) | 
If εl > 0 in the buffer matrix E, it means that the node l has the buffer time. The operation time delay of the subsequent connected node can be reduced through the buffer time. If the operation delay time of the node l is Δt, then the operation time delay of the subsequent connected node can be reduced to Δt – εl. If εl = 0, then the operation time delay of the subsequent connected node will also be Δt.
It can be known that we can obtain the processing conflict time and the planned casting break time according to the formula (15) and (18) when the operation delay time of oijk1 is Δt. If there have buffer units, then the processing conflict time and the planned casting break time can not be directly obtained according to the formula (15) and formula (18). These are closely related with the buffer units. So, it is needed to deeply analyze the relationship between delay time Δt and buffer units in order to find out the really impact on the scheduling system by delay time Δt.
4.3.4. Analysis on Influence Degree of Disturbance by Operation Time Delay under Buffer UnitsWhen the operation delay time of oijk1 is Δt, the analysis model of the impact on the starting time of operations by operation time delay under buffer units is established as follows according to the reachability matrix R and the buffer matrix E:
| (23) | 
| (24) | 
The analysis model of the impact on the completion time of operations by operation time delay under buffer units is established as follows according to the formula (19) and the formula (23):
| (25) | 
According to the above analysis, the analysis model of the processing conflict time between adjacent operations is established as follows when the operation delay time is Δt:
| (26) | 
The analysis model of the planned casting break time between adjacent charges in the same cast is established as follows when the operation delay time is Δt:
| (27) | 
The formula (26) and the formula (27) denote the final the processing conflict time and the final planned casting break time under buffer units, respectively. The processing conflict time and the planned casting break time are resolved by under buffer units in fact, which is the adjustment method. The different abnormal condition of the scheduling plan by the operation time delay can lead to the different adjustment method to resolve the abnormal condition. So, prediction for abnormal condition of scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance in SMCC production process is very important.
4.4.1. The Planned Casting Break Decision of Initial Scheduling Plan by Operation Time Delay under Buffer UnitsThe G denotes the time constraint graph between operations. The V indicates the all nodes set in G. When the node l0 (l0 is correspond to the charge Lij) delay Δt, if 
(1) If 
Proof. When the node l0 (l0 is correspond to operation oijk1 the charge Lij) delay Δt, according to the formula (18), 
| (28) | 
(2) If 
Proof. If 
(3) If 
Proof. If 
| (29) | 
(4) If let εl = 0 for the nodes l|l∈V, l∉Vij, 
Proof. For the nodes 
(5) For the nodes 
Proof. If let εl ≠ 0 for the nodes 
When the node l0 (l0 is correspond to the charge Lij) delay Δt, if 
(1) If 
Proof. The operation oI(ijk) is the subsequent operation of the operation oijk on machine in the initial scheduling plan. When the operation time delay occurs, the processing conflict time 
■ Case 1: oijk is also processed before oI(ijk) in the new scheduling plan. In this case, the completion time of oijk is earlier than the completion time of oI(ijk) which means 
| (30) | 
| (31) | 
■ Case 2: oijk is processed after oI(ijk) in the new scheduling plan. In this case, the starting time of oijk is later than the starting time of oI(ijk) which means 
| (32) | 
| (33) | 
To sum up, if 
(2) If 
Proof. The operation oI(ijk) is the subsequent operation of the operation oijk on machine in the initial scheduling plan. When the operation time delay occurs, the processing conflict time 
■ Case 1: oijk is also processed before oI(ijk) in the new scheduling plan. In this case, the starting time of oI(ijk) is later than the starting time of oijk which means 
| (34) | 
| (35) | 
■ Case 2: oijk is processed after oI(ijk) in the new scheduling plan. In this case, the completion time of oI(ijk) is earlier than the completion time of oijk which means 
| (36) | 
| (37) | 
To sum up, if 
(3) If 
Proof. The operation oI(ijk) is the subsequent operation of the operation oijk on machine in the initial scheduling plan. When the operation time delay occurs, the processing conflict time 
■ Case 1: oijk is also processed before oI(ijk) in the new scheduling plan. In this case, the completion time of oijk is earlier than the completion time of oI(ijk) which means 
| (38) | 
| (39) | 
■ Case 2: oijk is processed after oI(ijk) in the new scheduling plan. It can be known that 
| (40) | 
| (41) | 
To sum up, If 
(4) If 
Proof. According to above analysis, if 
■ Case 1: oijk is also processed before oI(ijk) in the new scheduling plan. It can be known that 
| (42) | 
| (43) | 
■ Case 2: oijk is processed after oI(ijk) in the new scheduling plan. It can be known that 
| (44) | 
| (45) | 
To sum up, if 
(5) If 
Proof. According to above analysis, it can not resolve the processing conflict between oijk and oI(ijk) synchronously by adjusting the processing time of operations of Lij and the charge including 
(6) For the nodes 
Proof. According to above analysis, if 
The Baosteel factory of China can produce 1000 kinds steel grade. There are three parallel converters of 250 t at steel making stage (4LD, 5LD, 6LD), three kinds of refining machines (5RH-1, 5RH-2, 3RH, LF-1, LF-2, IR_UT) at the refining stage, and three continuous casters (4CC, 5CC, 6CC). The number of refining processing ranging is from 1 to 4, and refining routes are more than 20. The computer systems have the level 2 computer system of process control and the level 3 computer system of region management. In the SMCC production process, operation time delay often occurs which may lead to planned casting break or processing conflict so that the initial scheduling plan becomes unrealizable. The rescheduling for the operation time delay is mainly relies on manual adjustment. The rescheduling methods are simply divided into four categories by the artificial experience: (1) if the operation time delay is within five minutes, then the scheduling plan is not adjusted. (2) If the operation time delay is between five minutes and ten minutes, then adjusting the starting time and the completion time of all operations. (3) If the operation time delay is between ten minutes and thirty minutes, then adjusting the processing machine, the starting time and the completion time of all operations. (4) If the operation time delay is greater than thirty minutes, then using other methods. Existing manual rescheduling methods with disturbances don’t analyze the influence degree of disturbances to the initial scheduling plan in detail, so the adjustment degree of initial scheduling plan is always too greater, which leads to the poor continuity and stability of initial scheduling plan.
5.2. Application ExampleThis paper takes the actual rescheduling problem in BaoSteel plant for example. Figure 3 shows the scheduling plan information at time t1. The cast one is processed on 4CC and 

The scheduling plan at time t1.
| Machine | LD | RH | LF | IR_UT | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Standard | Interval | Standard | Interval | Standard | Interval | Standard | Interval | |
| Processing time (m) | 35 | [32,38] | 20 | [15,30] | 30 | [22,35] | 30 | [25,35] | 
The processing time of charge on continuous casting machine is related to following facts: the total weight of the molten steel in charge, the average thickness of the slab, the average width of the odd strand slab and the dual slab of charge and pulling speed of the continuous casting machine. If the charge Lij is the first chare in the cast, then the processing time of the charge Lij on continuous casting machine is calculated as follows:
| (46) | 
| (47) | 
| Operations | o113 | o123 | o133 | o143 | o153 | o163 | o173 | o213 | o223 | o233 | o243 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimal processing time (m) | 45 | 45 | 45 | 50 | 55 | 45 | 40 | 45 | 45 | 50 | 45 | 
| Standard processing time (m) | 48 | 48 | 49 | 58 | 60 | 46 | 42 | 46 | 46 | 50 | 50 | 
| Maximum processing time (m) | 60 | 60 | 61 | 70 | 75 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 65 | 65 | 
| Operations | o253 | o263 | o273 | o283 | o313 | o323 | o333 | o343 | o353 | o363 | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minimal processing time (m) | 45 | 50 | 45 | 45 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 60 | 
| Standard processing time (m) | 50 | 55 | 52 | 54 | 74 | 74 | 76 | 76 | 76 | 77 | 
| Maximum processing time (m) | 65 | 70 | 67 | 70 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 85 | 
| Transportation time | 4LD | 5LD | 6LD | 5RH-1 | 5RH-2 | 3RH | LF-1 | LF-2 | IR_UT | 4CC | 5CC | 6CC | 
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4LD | 0 | 12 | 13 | 10 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 14 | 
| 5LD | 0 | 12 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 15 | 14 | |
| 6LD | 0 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 16 | 15 | ||
| 5RH-1 | 0 | 18 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 23 | 22 | 25 | 25 | |||
| 5RH-2 | 0 | 21 | 20 | 18 | 23 | 22 | 25 | 25 | ||||
| 3RH | 0 | 20 | 21 | 18 | 25 | 22 | 22 | |||||
| LF-1 | 0 | 18 | 21 | 22 | 25 | 25 | ||||||
| LF-2 | 0 | 23 | 22 | 25 | 25 | |||||||
| IR_UT | 0 | 25 | 22 | 22 | ||||||||
| 4CC | 0 | 16 | 16 | |||||||||
| 5CC | 0 | 13 | ||||||||||
| 6CC | 0 | 
The scheduling plan at time t2(t2 = 14:21) is shown in Fig. 4. The operation 

The scheduling plan at time t2.
(1) Get event information: m = 2LD, 
(2) The processing time of operations which are being processed or have been processed can not be changed. So, the operations not be processed are only considered when the reachability matrix is established. The correspondence relationship between nodes and operations is shows in Table 5. The κ denotes the idle state, and the μ indicates the interval state between adjacent operations of the same charge.
| Node | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 
| Operation | 
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| Node | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 
| Operation | 
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| Node | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 
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| Node | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 
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| Node | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85 | |||||||||||||||
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(3) It can be known that the o241 is the corresponding operation for the node 6 according to the Table 5. The planned casting break time 
(4) The processing conflict time 
(5) The processing conflict time 
(6) The processing conflict time 
According to the above application example, it can be known that abnormal condition of scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance are determined according the proposed method when the operation delay time of o241 is twenty minutes.(1) The abnormal condition of planned casting break between the charge L23 and the charge L24 on 5CC is two-level planned casting break ζ12, so the planned casting break between charge can be resolved synchronously by adjusting the processing time of L23 at continuous casting stage and the processing time of L24 at each stage.(2) The abnormal condition of processing conflict between the charge L24 and the charge L25 on 5LD is two-level processing conflict ζ22, so the processing conflict between charge L24 and L25 can be resolved synchronously by adjusting the processing time of L24 and L25 on 5LD.(3) The abnormal condition of processing conflict between the charge L24 and the charge L25 on 5CC is three-level processing conflict ζ23, so the processing conflict between charge L24 and L25 can be resolved synchronously by adjusting the processing time of L24 and L25 on each stage. Because the operation delay time of o241 is twenty minutes which is between ten minutes and thirty minutes, the abnormal condition of the scheduling plan will be resolved by adjusting the processing machine, the starting time and the completion time of all operations according to the manual method. The proposed method can solve the abnormal condition only by adjusting the processing time of some charges, which can maintain the good continuity and stability.
In the steelmaking and continuous casting (SMCC) production process, operation time delay often occurs which may lead to planned casting break or processing conflict so that the initial scheduling plan becomes unrealizable. Existing rescheduling methods don’t analyze the influence degree of disturbances to the initial scheduling plan in detail, so the adjustment degree of initial scheduling plan is always too greater, which leads to the poor continuity and stability of initial scheduling plan. In this paper, the relation among operation time delay, planned casting break and processing conflict is firstly deeply analyzed. Then a novel prediction method for abnormal condition of scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance in SMCC production process is proposed including disturbance identification of operating time delay based on event-driven mechanism, analysis on charges based on reachability matrix, analysis on influence degree of disturbance and abnormal condition decision of initial scheduling plan. The real-time application shows that the proposed prediction method can timely and accurately predict the abnormal condition of the scheduling plan with operation time delay disturbance, which can only adjust the affected charges that must to be rescheduled in the initial scheduling plan and reduce the frequency of complete rescheduling. The initial scheduling plan can also maintain the good continuity and stability.
This research is partly supported by National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB32060l), National Natural Science Foundation of China (61104174, 61174187); 111 Project (No. B08015), Basic Scientific Research Foundation of Northeast University under Grant N110208001, Starting Foundation of Northeast University under Grant 29321006.