Machine Learning Algorithms for Predicting and Estimating Book Borrowing in University Libraries

Abstract

Accurate prediction of borrowing volume of library books is conducive to the decision-making of the managers. This study briefly introduces the backpropagation neural network (BPNN) algorithm used to predict the borrowing volume of university libraries. The factor analysis method and genetic algorithm were employed to optimize the BPNN algorithm to improve its prediction performance. The book borrowing records of 2022 from Handan College Library were considered the subject of simulation experiments. The designed algorithm was compared with the extreme gradient boosting and traditional BPNN algorithms in the experiments. The results showed that average borrowing time, book lending ratio, book return ratio, and average grade of borrowers could be used as the input features of BPNN. The improved BPNN algorithm demonstrated faster convergence and a smaller error during training. The borrowing volume predicted by the improved BPNN algorithm closely matched the actual volume, and the increase in prediction time did not lead to a significant change in the prediction error.