THE EFFECT OF RUPTURE STARTING POINT UNCERTAINTY ON THE LONG PERIOD GROUND MOTION PREDICTION OF TOKAI EARTHQUAKE

Abstract

The effect of rupture starting point uncertainty on the prediction of long-period ground motion using a source model was examined regarding the hypothetical Tokai Earthquake. Monte Carlo simulation with a sample size of 30,000 was conducted assuming that the rupture starting point is uniformly distributed in the fault to calculate the statistics of the ground motion. The results of numerical simulations revealed that the maximum values of velocity response spectra in the long period region are well expressed by TYPE III extreme value distribution. The presence of an upper limit in this statistical distribution was also pointed out by using the extreme value statistics theory.