Abstract
This paper proposes a method to predict the acceleration response spectrum of ground motion for crustal earthquakes in probabilistic manner, which can be used for probabilistic seismic risk assessment considering simultaneous occurrence of damage for spatially-distributed multiple structures. First, statistical prediction equations of acceleration response spectra are developed by using observed records of crustal earthquakes occurred in Japan, taking into account the effects of deep subsurface soil structure. Then, inter-period correlation is modelled for inter-event and intra-event residuals. The characteristics of spatial correlation of intra-event residual are also analyzed and modelled. Finally, examples of application are shown to demonstrate the necessity of the proposed method.
