TRANSITION OF SEISMIC RISK ON RESIDENTIAL BUILDING DAMAGES BETWEEN 1890 AND 2040 IN JAPAN

Abstract

This paper discusses the transition of seismic risk on residential building damages using seismic hazard curves of National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan. By calculating expectation values of residential building damages in 1890, 1920, 1950, 1980, 2010 and 2040 in Japan, we consider their changes and aspects. In order to calculate, we estimate distribution of residential buildings and loss functions in each base year. The result shows that the changes of seismic risk are influenced by subduction-zone earthquakes with specified seismic source faults and concludes that it is important to evaluate seismic risk with a view to temporal axis.