2019 Volume 19 Issue 7 Pages 7_27-7_40
Recently, asset management systems have become the powerful tool that is able to lead to an effective maintenance strategy of civil infrastructures. In the system, it is important to estimate the deterioration of infrastructures. However, there are few studies of deterioration prediction considering event risk such as earthquakes. This paper proposes the simplified dynamic macro deterioration prediction model of a set of tunnel lighting facilities that considers seismic damage ratio to them in addition to natural deterioration. Concretely, the model treats all tunnel lighting facilities in a tunnel tube as one unit and predicts health degree of a tunnel unit. Then, the paper estimates the restoration cost and the restoration health degree using the indicator of cost-effectiveness degree in the case of immediate restoration. Finally, the authors discuss the applicability of the proposed asset management model from cost management point of view.