Variability of Ground Motion Simulation due to Aleatory Uncertainty of Source Parameters

Abstract

In order to evaluate the variability of predicted ground motion amplitude due to aleatory uncertainty of the source parameters, we conducted ground motion simulation considering the uncertainty of the source parameters. Since the characteristics of the variability of simulated ground motion amplitude are consistent with the variability investigated by analysis of ground motion records (Hikita et al., 2018), the uncertainty of the fault parameters assumed in the simulation is reasonable. The characteristics of the variability of simulated ground motion amplitude varied according to the seismic magnitude. In the simulation for M_J7.0 earthquake, the variability of simulated ground motion amplitude of about 2 seconds in period was relatively large.