2022 Volume 22 Issue 3 Pages 3_30-3_42
Reliable estimation of surface fault displacements is necessary for the safety of infrastructure and buildings. It is essential to consider various uncertainties in the fault rupture process for the reliable estimation. In this study, the effect of material uncertainties on surface fault analysis was examined by performing ensemble simulations using Latin hypercube sampling. The convergence of probabilistic responses versus the number of samples was analyzed by computing multiple sample sets. It is shown that the critical value of the primary fault base slip at which surface faults appear on the ground are strongly affected by material uncertainties. The probabilistic distribution of the critical base slip can be approximated well by the log-normal distribution when the material properties are assumed to be log-normal random variables. The mean and standard deviation can be estimated with errors of several centimeters by conducting ten simulations when the material properties have coefficients of variance of less than 0.3.
