PROBABILISTIC FAULT DISPLACEMENT HAZARD ANALYSIS USING MODEL OF SEISMIC SOURCE CHARACTERISTICS AT THE IKATA SITE BASED ON GUIDELINES FOR SSHAC LEVEL 3

Abstract

Fault displacement is an important hazard to be considered in the seismic design of structures, along with strong ground motion. In recent years, standards and safety guides for probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis have been published, and social demand for probabilistic verification of fault displacement underneath critical facilities has increased. However, the practice of this method is very limited worldwide, and there are no reports of its full-scale implementation for a specific structure in Japan. In order to achieve wide application in the future, we should first practice probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis based on a model with higher accuracy, and then understand the current issues properly. Here, we practice the probabilistic fault displacement hazard analysis using model of seismic source characteristics at the Ikata site based on guidelines for SSHAC Level 3, and report on the specific issues in its application at the practical level, referred to the knowledge obtained from the observation data of the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake.