Optimal Location of Tsunami Evacuation Towers Considering Uncertainty Associated with Hazard Assessment of Tsunami Caused by the Anticipated Nankai Trough Earthquake

Abstract

Tsunami evacuation towers play an important role in emergency evacuations in coastal regions. The placement of the evacuation towers has been determined based on the worst-case tsunami scenario. However, the tsunami intensity and corresponding arrival time to coastal regions should be estimated taking into consideration uncertainties associated with fault movements. It should be investigated whether the placements of evacuation towers based on the worst-case tsunami scenario can minimize the tsunami casualties. This paper presents a novel framework for optimizing the placement of evacuation towers based on the risk associated with tsunami casualties under the constraint of budget. As an illustrative example, the proposed method is applied to a coastal region affected by the anticipated Nankai Trough earthquake. The effect of the tsunami hazard assessment method on the optimal placement of evacuation towers is discussed.