2024 Volume 24 Issue 5 Pages 5_187-5_197
After the 2011 off the Pacific coast of Tohoku Earthquake, the importance of incorporating the variety and uncertainty of the characteristics of earthquakes, including source parameters, in ground motion prediction has been re-recognized. When such prediction is used for seismic design of structures, how to treat the wide range of predicted ground motions and to determine the design ground motions depending on the required level of safety becomes an important issue. In order to appropriately evaluate the mean and the range of variation in the ground motion prediction, Monte Carlo simulation is conventionally utilized but there is a problem in that the computational demands are large. Therefore, we studied a method to calculate the ground motions based on a fault model according to the required performance level of a building with a small number of calculations. The validity of the method was confirmed for the 1923 Great Kanto Earthquake by extracting source characteristics corresponding to the mean and mean +1σof the ground motion levels and generating associated ground motions.
