Study on Uncertainty of Stability Analysis of Submarine Slopes During Earthquakes

Abstract

In order to clarify the uncertainty in the evaluation of the seismic stability of slopes by the modified Fellenius method, the results obtained from the existing centrifugal experiments were organized and analyzed. As existing experiments, 15 cases were used among a series of centrifugal loading experiments on the seabed slope model, and the experimental conditions, the strength characteristics of the seabed slope model ground, and the experimental results were arranged and analyzed. For analysis of uncertainties, the acting seismic coefficient at the time a slip surface was formed in the slope, the yield seismic coefficient obtained by the modified Fellenius method for an arc-shaped slip surface set near the slip surface, the slip safety factor at that time are evaluated. In addition, as for the uncertainty of the method used for seismic stability evaluation of slope, the acting seismic coefficient at the time a slip surface is formed has a large variation but is small. It was found that the slip safety factor at that time was larger than the value of 1.0 when calculating the yield seismic coefficient, although there was some variation.