Evaluation of Fluctuations in Earthquake Frequency for Assessing Improvements to the Seismic Activity Model in the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan

Abstract

Since the National Seismic Hazard Maps for Japan was released in 2009, it has been improved until the latest version in 2020. In this paper, we analyzed the fluctuations in the number of earthquakes calculated from the seismic activity models for the first 2009 edition, the greatly improved 2014 edition, and the latest 2020 edition. As a result, we confirmed the validation of the seismic activity model in 2020. On the other hand, we pointed out the need to improve the seismic activity modeling of large-scale earthquakes.