Abstract
We study variations of predicted ground motions on the basis of a recipe for strong-motion prediction and propose a technique for evaluation of variation in the predicted ground motions. In this article, we consider only aleatory variabilities in source parameters among all possible variabilities, such as, those in the source parameters, the propagation characteristics and the site characteristics. We use a Monte Carlo simulation to estimate variations and adopt the Latin Hypercube Sampling (LHS) method to reduce computations. We estimate the variation of predicted ground motions in PGA, PGV and response spectrum at a specific site and calculate average and standard deviation of normal distribution, and also we evaluate the special variation in the area by using the space distribution maps of standard deviation. It is shown that the variations in the predicted ground motions on the basis of a recipe are comparable with those of attenuation formula.
