Abstract
Using the data collected from a post-election survey, official election results, and supplementary public opinion data, this study investigates the effects of voters' socioeconomic characteristics and ideological orientations on their candidate choice in the 2007 Korean presidential election. The effect of a voter's residential region on candidate choice was demonstrated by the regional cleavage of Honam versus the rest. Despite the lack of sharp generational cleavage, older voters were more likely to support Lee Myung-bak. No discernible pattern of class voting existed. However, a moderate degree of ideological cleavage in electoral support was found. Progressives favored Chung Dongyoung slightly more than Lee, while centrists and conservatives overwhelmingly chose Lee over Chung. Also, on the individual voter level, a more conservative voter had a greater likelihood of choosing Lee. Voters' ideological self-perception had substantive meaning in the sense that it constrained their stands on selected issues, such as the nation's most important problem and the outgoing President Roh's job performance. Voters who singled out economic growth as the most important national objective indeed supported Lee much more strongly than Chung. People who judged President Roh's job performance more negatively were more likely to vote for Lee of the main opposition party. Perceived ideological distance from Lee monotonically decreased the likelihood of support for him. A voter's ideological proximity to a candidate was positively related to his or her choice of the candidate. With the regional, generational, and ideological cleavages becoming weaker than before, Lee Myung-bak launches his national leadership in a less divided political environment. Still, depending on his leadership style and performance, the type, pattern, and extent of social and ideological cleavages in electoral support will change. The Korean electorate dynamically responds to what the government does and achieves.
