Does the Economy Influence Election Results?

An Analysis of the Lower House Election Results of Abe Cabinet and the Economic Situation of Japanese Prefectures

Abstract

This article aims to examine the effect of the economy on election results; analyze data on economic conditions; and review the 2012, 2014, and 2017 lower house election results in Japanese prefectures. Most previous studies have used survey data, and few have used aggregate data. The reason is that studies using time-series data make it challenging to remove the effects of political situations and economic conditions in different elections, and studies using cross-session data at the local level make it difficult to remove the effects of local and candidate characteristics. This article uses data of the lower house elections held by the Abe Cabinet, and removes the effects such as the political situation and candidate characteristics using data of the difference in the vote share of the same candidate running in that election. I analyze the data and conclude that the economy has an insignificant effect on the election results.