Do Local Politicians' Mobilization Efforts Matter in National Elections?

Evidence from Japan

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to see if national election turnouts are significantly affected by local and national politicians' campaign efforts. I conducted a multivariate analysis, controlling for other factors that we know affect national election turnouts, and find the following results. First, I find that there is a statistically significant relationship between national election turnouts and local politicians' mobilization-related efforts. This relationship is more conspicuous in House of Councillors (HC) elections than in House of Representatives (HR) elections, implying that local politicians' mobilization-related efforts seem to play more pivotal roles in affecting the turnouts for HC elections than for HR elections, other things equal.
Second, I find a statistically significant relationship between national election turnouts and national politicians' mobilization-related efforts. I proxy national politicians' mobilization-related efforts as how much campaign money national politicians spend per eligible voter in each district. National politicians' mobilization-related efforts are positively correlated to turnouts for both houses' elections, meaning that spending campaign money boosts national election turnouts. Further, I find that money has more impact in HC than in HR elections.
Last, the occurrence of a double election increases the turnout for both houses' elections. Whenever the two houses' elections coincide, the average turnout is boosted by 3% for HC elections and 10% for HR elections.