Do Campaigns Matter? The Effect of the Campaign in the 2004 Taiwan Presidential Election⁺

Abstract

One of the noteworthy developments in recent Taiwan politics has been the increase and emergence of a mainstream Taiwanese identity. Meanwhile, the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has struggled with a perception of poor economic performance while preparing for an uphill battle with the opposition KMT (Kuomingtang)-PFP (People First Party) alliance which promised a swift economic recovery in this year's presidential election. Under these circumstances, the DPP chose to develop the referendum issue as its main campaign theme, as a means of promoting Taiwanese identity and the value of direct democracy. Our observations would suggest that the referendum issue largely influenced voting pattern while an alternative negative campaign strategy had very little impact. Using surveys administered by the Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, we were able to examine the variable of respondent support levels to discover that the DPP had successfully attracted people who were also supportive of the two referendums. This finding confirms that the DPP's campaign strategy had an effect on the outcome of this presidential election.