Abstract
In this paper, using municipallevel data, I examine whether electoral results at different levels and periods affected 2007 prefectural assembly elections in Japan. According to discussions of the midterm loss phenomenon, voters consider previous election results when they make their electoral choice. In the literature on Japanese voters, some researchers also suggested the existence of the strategic voter who does not choose straightticket voting. Based on these arguments, this paper tries to explain LDP vote margins from previous elections by two types of strategic voting. One is buffering strategy which is a negative response to LDP wins at previous elections. The other is balancing vote strategy which favors equilibrium between chief executive and assembly members. Using a simple OLS regression analysis, I find the buffering strategy occurs in ways that match the theory. But, in contrast, the balancing vote strategy appears in ways that do not match the expectation.
