Study on the effectiveness verification index of the level of care required at three and six years using a probability simulation model

Abstract

In this study, we focused on the level of care required at three and six years and examined longitudinal changes using a probability simulation model, to determine the mean value of significant differences in these levels, based on previous studies. A probability simulation model was constructed with reference to previous studies, a hypothetical sample of 10,000 people was created for each level of care (from one to five) required, the means and unbiased variances were calculated from the sample, and the mean values that showed a significant difference with a risk rate of less than one percent were calculated from the t‐values. From the analyses, the means of deterioration, maintenance, and improvement were calculated for each level of long‐term care needed. After excluding deaths and completion of care from the sample, the means that showed more concrete and significant differences were calculated by selecting samples that had been continuously certified as requiring long‐term care. The results suggest that the derived mean value can be used as an index for verifying the longitudinal effectiveness of older adult care measures and long‐term care service projects. Although this study made assumptions during the construction of the probability simulation model, it can be used as the basis in the future for the analysis of claims data that mean true values in the long‐term care insurance field, where analysis is currently inadequate. Furthermore, it is necessary to expand the extant literature using current methods, such as probability simulation models, to demonstrate the need for the analysis of claims data.