2013 Volume 33 Issue 6 Pages 301-310
We developed a Patients Access Area Model (PAAM) using a Geographic information system (GIS). Owing to population aging, medical demand will rapidly increase. A demographic study projects the expected number of patients. The aim of this study is to estimate the demand and supply balance in the medical section. We set the PAAM for each 500 m mesh in accordance with the Japanese free access policy that is to say we can freely choose a hospital we prefer. We compared the projected number of patients and the number of available beds in a domestic hospital based on PAAM. This model estimated that approximately 3,400 patients would have to access a remote hospital in 2030. Using PAAM, we can estimate when and where over loading of inpatients occur, to search the better situation by changing the parameter. For demand evaluation, if patients cannot be distributed to the hospitals within an accessible area, we define the situation as “over-demand.” Therefore, although it was estimated that 3400 inpatients would not receive inpatient care in a northwest area region in the studied prefecture, most of the over-demand exists in densely populated regions along major traffic lines in 2030. Using this model, we can estimate the demand for local health resources more accurately. This method is very useful to plan geographical resource allocation in medical services.
