2017 Volume 37 Issue 2 Pages 55-67
A Tokyo metropolitan earthquake will occur with high probability in the near future. The aim of this research is to construct software to enable the DMAT (Disaster Medical Assistance Team) to locate a usable disaster base hospital and to guide their route before information about damage is available. Using this software, we estimated damage to hospitals and prepared a practical DMAT rescue plan. In our previous research, entitled ‘‘Utilizing GIS (Geographic Information System) software to estimate damage to medical institutions in a Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake and to suggest a DMAT rescue plan in the acute disaster phase’’, we developed software that directed DMAT to available disaster base hospitals. We have since then enhanced the software to estimate the damage to hospitals and assess the possibility of transferring patients away from a Tokyo metropolitan earthquake. The worst-case scenario of the Tokyo metropolitan earthquake occurs when the seismic center is located directly south central to the Capital. In that scenario, 20.5% of hospitals and 50,000 beds will be destroyed or unusable. In addition, the Cabinet Office of the Government of Japan estimates that 25,000 severely injured people will need rescue. There are 150 disaster base hospitals in the disaster area, but 10 of those will not be available due to fire and traffic obstacles. All of these patients cannot be treated at the disaster base hospitals, so building SCU (staging care unit), dispatching DMAT, and transferring patients to more distant areas are necessary. In the worst case, traffic obstacles are likely to interfere with patient transfer. Hospitals need to be retrofitted to be earthquake resistant and fireproof. Hospital preparation and effective distribution of the DMAT teams are critical for effective rescue and optimum care of the public in a disaster.
