Forecasting supply and demand for medical technologists from open data

Abstract

Japan’s total population has begun to decline, and in 2007, we entered a super-aging society. The environment around us is constantly and drastically changing, and reforms in the way doctors work will begin in fiscal year 2024. In this turbulent environment, it is important to understand the supply and demand for clinical laboratory jobs to look to the future. Demand was determined on the basis of the estimated population in October 2019, and the number of clinical laboratories in the future was calculated by multiplying the number of tests performed per capita by gender and age group and the estimated future population using NDB open data. Other data, such as the patient uptake rate from the patient survey, were also used as references. For supply, the number of clinical laboratories in medical institutions and the number of clinical laboratories that passed the national examination from the Survey of Medical Institutions and the Functional Report on Hospital Beds were used as references. The number of clinical laboratories will peak around 2030 and begin to decline thereafter, indicating that the total number of clinical laboratories itself will decline after 2045 from 2019. The number of hospitals where medical technologists work is declining, and the most recent survey of medical facilities showed that the number of medical technologists working there is not increasing. In addition, with the increase in the number of training schools, both the number of candidates and the number of successful candidates increased around 2011. This suggests that there is a strong possibility that supply and demand will not match in the future and that it will be necessary to actively and proactively expand opportunities for medical technologists, such as by actively participating in task shifting/sharing work and becoming a much-needed human resource in this era, while demonstrating expertise and strengths.