Host: National Committee for IUTAM
Co-host: The Japan Society of Applied Physics, The Society of Chemical Engineers, Japan, Society of Automotive Engineers of Japan, The Japanese Geotechnical Society, Japan Society of Civil Engineers, The Japan Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, Japan Association for Wind Engineering, The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers, The Meteorological Society of Japan, The Japan Society for Computational Engineering and Science, Japan Society for Computational Methods in Engineering, Architectural Institute of Japan, Atomic Energy Society of Japan, The Japan Society for Aeronautical and Space Sciences, The Japanese Society for Multiphase Flow, Japan Association for Earthquake Engineering, The Mathematical Society of Japan, The Japan Society of Naval Architects and Ocean Engineers, The Heat Transfer Society of Japan, The Physical Society of Japan, The Japan Society of Fluid Mechanics, The Japanese Society of Irrigation, Drainage and Rural Engineering
In Japan, the proportion of rubella susceptible person's is currently near the threshold above which a major epidemic may occur. During 2012/13 the number of rubella cases in Japan was relatively large in recent years. The maximum number of weekly reported cases was 168 in Tokyo Prefecture and 268 in Osaka Prefecture while 1-2 or no cases are reported per week in usual years in each prefecture. This epidemic is almost limited to the metropolitan area while below ten cases per week were reported in 30 prefectures. Such a geographical contrast in reported cases reflects that the susceptibility is very close to the threshold of major outbreak. It is necessary to take into account a spillover of the disease via the person's movement and stochastic nature of transmission in order to reproduce such an infection trend. In the present study, it is shown that the 2012/13 epidemic is reproduced better well by a stochastic meta-population model. Using this model, we have compared the final size (total number of cases over an epidemic) between equal and weighted distribution of vaccines and found that concentration to the largest three prefectures minimize the final size.