NCTAM papers, National Congress of Theoretical and Applied Mechanics, Japan
The 64th Japan National Congress for Theoretical and Applied
Session ID : OS11-01-04
Conference information

OS11-1
The Institute of Statistical Mathematics
M.M. Saito
Author information
CONFERENCE PROCEEDINGS FREE ACCESS

Details
Abstract

In Japan, the proportion of rubella susceptible person's is currently near the threshold above which a major epidemic may occur. During 2012/13 the number of rubella cases in Japan was relatively large in recent years. The maximum number of weekly reported cases was 168 in Tokyo Prefecture and 268 in Osaka Prefecture while 1-2 or no cases are reported per week in usual years in each prefecture. This epidemic is almost limited to the metropolitan area while below ten cases per week were reported in 30 prefectures. Such a geographical contrast in reported cases reflects that the susceptibility is very close to the threshold of major outbreak. It is necessary to take into account a spillover of the disease via the person's movement and stochastic nature of transmission in order to reproduce such an infection trend. In the present study, it is shown that the 2012/13 epidemic is reproduced better well by a stochastic meta-population model. Using this model, we have compared the final size (total number of cases over an epidemic) between equal and weighted distribution of vaccines and found that concentration to the largest three prefectures minimize the final size.

Content from these authors
© 2017 The Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers
Previous article Next article
feedback
Top