A Study on Prediction Technique for Future Traffic Demand Related to Traffic Impact Analysis for Large-scale Urban Development

Abstract

Large-scale urban developments adversely affect surounding traffic condition. Needed are the formulation of local transport plans based on the traffic impact assessment, and the implementation of necessary countermeasures. For the purpose of developing systematic methodology on such plans, the paper focuses on the application of trip generation rate to its future traffic demand prediction.

Firstly, the basic characteristics of the related transport plan are clarified in view of the domestic and oversea practice, and in comparison with comprehensive urban transport plan. Secondly, based on a result of the preceding study on a data set of trip generation rates, presented is a series of analyses and considerations on its application. It is proposed that trip generation rate categorized by development types/location factors should be adopted, and that the standard variation should be reflected in addition to the average. Thirdly, the proposed prediction technique is verified through comparison of predicted figures and actual traffic counts. Finally it is demonstrated that the proposed technique is practically useful.