The Effect of the Choice Set on Voter Turnout in Amalgamation Referendum

Abstract

There have been 418 local referendums concerning municipal amalgamations between 2001 and 2005. Voter turnout ranges from 30.19% to 92.61%. In this paper, I analyze differences in the level of turnout focusing on the choice set presented to the voters.

Previous research has unanimously advocated that referendums should be held with as simple a set of alternatives as possible. Regression analysis shows, however, that the most simple “yes or no” type alternative tends to lead to lower turnout in amalgamation referendums. This tendency is stronger in less populated areas. These aggregate results are supported by more precise data in Shobu town of Saitama and Kinpo town of Kagoshima, which suggest the less populated area the electorate resides in, the stronger are preferences about municipal amalgamation. I interpret this to mean that many voters find no appropriate alternatives on the ballot. Consequently, some of them abstain from voting in the referendum.