Forecast for Corporate Performance Using Scanner Data

Abstract

We forecast the net sales of individual manufacturers using scanner data. Since scanner data record product sales at retail outlets, it is reasonable to assume that sales forecasts can be derived from such data for manufacturers whose business performance is predominantly driven by domestic retail sales. Firms for which scanner data account for only a minor share of total sales are excluded from the scope of analysis. A previous study reported that the growth rate in quarterly sales for manufacturers whose anchor products are daily necessities in the United States were strongly related to the scanner data’s growth rate. In this previous study, they used all scanner data, but various error factors exist in scanner data and sampling bias is also large. Therefore in our study, in addition to forecasting sales using all scanner data, we cleanse scanner data before forecasting sales and verify the effectiveness of cleansing. We also examine the applicability of scanner data to stock investment.