2023 Volume 88 Issue 6 Pages 450-453
We are officially aiming to significantly reduce CO2 emissions and become a carbon-neutral society. On the other hand, our society cannot accept soaring energy prices at this point. We empirically analyzed the relationship between the unit cost of offshore wind power projects and the factors based on actual data from offshore wind power facilities in Europe. As a result, based on the data collected in this study from 2000 onwards, it was observed that the project unit cost tends to increase as the year of wind power facilities commissioning is newer. It suggested that excessive expectations such as “significant progress in cost reduction” should be avoided. We applied real options analysis to carbon dioxide capture and storage（CCS）investment and calculated the investment threshold at which it is appropriate to make the investment in terms of expected costs. As a result, we confirmed that there are large areas where it is cost-effective to wait at that point, rather than immediately making a final investment decision in a new power source. This means that it is challenging to proceed with CCS investment under uncertainty. To promote the spread of CCS, it is necessary to overcome the investment barriers shown in this analysis. Carbon neutrality has been focused on for a long time. To maintain and secure the direction of carbon neutrality while minimizing the economic burden as much as possible, it is necessary to confront these challenges that lie ahead.
