2024 Volume 89 Issue 5 Pages 332-339
BP statistical review of world energy published by BP since 1952 until 2022 has been transferred to the Energy Institute (EI) since 2023 and published as the EI statistical review of world energy. However, in this text, since it has been known and familiar as BP statistics in oil and gas industry, the author has decided to refer the statistical data published by EI since 2023 to as BP statistics or BP/EI statistics.
Based on BP statistics (2024), the author has reviewed the industrial trend of exploration and development of oil and natural gas in the world. The results show that since 1970, the annual production of oil in the world has been increasing rapidly, but the reserves-to-production ratio (R/P) of oil has been on a slight increasing trend, as proved reserves have also increased rapidly. In the BP statistics (2024), there is only data on proved reserves for 1980-2020, so I can only discuss the R/P ratios for 1980-2020, but the R/P of oil, which was 29.7 years in 1980, gradually increased to 53.4 years in 2020, the longest. This increase was due to the fact that Canadian oil sand and shale oil in the United States, which had previously been considered as unconventional resources and had not been added to proven reserves (until then treated as mining), were approved by the US Security and Exchange Commission (SEC) to add to the proved reserves of oil, and the authorization came into effect on January 12010 (SEC, 2009). The rapid increase in oil production and reserves from these resources has a lot to do with it.
It also found that the R/P of gas has remained flat since 1970, as the world’s annual natural gas production has skyrocketed, but proved reserves have also soared. In the BP statistics (2024), there is only data on proven reserves for gas from 1980 to 2020, so we can only discuss the figures for 1980-2020 for R/P, but the R/P peaked (62.1 years) in 2001 and decreased slightly to 48.8 years in 2020. It became clear that there was no significant difference compared to 1980.
Based on these results, I would be fortunate if I could correct the misunderstanding that "there is only 30 or 40 years of oil left" that has been whispered in the public for decades, and to spread a correct understanding of R/P.
