2025 Volume 21 Issue 1 Pages 49-68
This study examined how the acquisition of mathematical skills by the second year of junior high school can be explained by mathematical abilities and learning strategies at the sixth grade of elementary school, as well as by socioeconomic status and school districts at the first year of junior high school. Four attributes were identified: “calculation,” “conceptual understanding,” “geometric manipulation,” and “logical reasoning.” A cognitive diagnostic model incorporating explanatory variables was estimated using Bayesian inference with the MCMC method. The results show that students with higher mathematical abilities in sixth grade were 3 to 7 times more likely to acquire all attributes. Students with well-developed learning strategies in sixth grade had slightly higher odds of acquiring “calculation” and “conceptual understanding.” However, students receiving school financial aid in the first year of junior high school had approximately 30-40% lower odds of acquiring “calculation” and “conceptual understanding.” Even after controlling for these covariates, the odds of acquiring the attributes varied by up to six times across school districts.
