2008 Volume 4 Issue 1 Pages 101-112
The pass ratio of students taking the new national bar examination (Bar Exam) for each law school was predicted based on their score on the National Admission Test for Law Schools (NATLaS). The previous model which assumes that the only student whose NATLaS score is larger than a common threshold value can pass the Bar Exam was adapted for recent situation. As for students in a two-year course of each enrolled year at each law school, a cumulative pass ratio of the Bar Exam is estimated. The previous model succeeds in predicting the estimated values. The estimated threshold values of the NATLaS score for passing the Bar Exam in the shortest years are shown to be stable between different enrolled years. For students in a three-year course, the previous model is modified by adding another threshold value of the NATLaS score. Students whose NATLaS scores are higher than the threshold value were assumed to have sufficient ability to take the Bar Exam in three years. The modified model indicates that students enrolled in a three-year course required much better NATLaS scores to succeed in passing the Bar Exam compared to those in a two-year course.
