To Clarify and Estimate the Hospital Patients with Higher Risk During Large-Scale Floods

Abstract

Japan experiences floods frequently. Due to climate change, catastrophic floods in Japan can be more frequent in the future. During catastrophic floods, there is an increase in risk of death to existing patients in hospitals. This was observed during Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans. In Japan, however, extracting and estimating the risks in hospitals during big floods were not sufficiently conducted in previous studies. Thus, this research clarifies the risks in hospitals during a big flood using interviews and previous case studies. The potential risks in hospitals were estimated using five levee breach patterns in downstream of Arakawa River.

According to the interviews, it was revealed that five types of patients may become in danger during catastrophic floods. These patients include dialysis patients, patients being treated in ICU or SCU, patients with an artificial respirator, patients with a suction device, and pregnant women/newborn babies. It was also discovered that clean water and electricity supply, which are usually stopped during a big flood, are critical for these patients. Although there are emergency generators in hospitals, these are vulnerable to inundation. Furthermore, pre-evacuation was not possible in previous flood cases.

Five levee breach patterns were set in estimating the risks. In Tokyo metropolis, each pattern indicated different types of risks because flooded districts varied from one pattern to another. On the other hand, every pattern showed similar trend in Saitama prefecture. It was revealed that the types of patient and increase in patient mortality depend on the levee breach patterns. Based on the discovery of this study, municipality and hospitals should take appropriate measures to mitigate increased risk in patient mortality during large-scale floods