Do Evacuation Warnings Reduce Human Casualties? Evidence from the Torrential Rain Disaster of July 2018 and the East Japan Typhoon of 2019

Abstract

This study suggests a method to evaluate how effective the evacuation warnings were issued by municipalities in Japan in reducing human casualties and conduct the evaluation analysis by using the method in case of the torrential rain disaster of July 2018 and the East Japan Typhoon (Typhoon No. 19) in 2019. Our primary conclusion is as follows. First, the evacuation warnings were used as the Japanese disaster management policy expects, in which preparatory warning is the least, recommendation of evacuation is the middle, and an evacuation order is the most urgent warning. Second, the warnings surely contribute to reducing human casualties compared with the case that the warning was not issued. Third, at least in the case of the East Japan Typhoon of 2019, it is confirmed that issuing multiple warnings reduced human casualties more than a single warning did.