System dynamics on agricultural productions

Abstract

This paper summarizes system dynamics, tools for construction and execution of system dynamics, and applications to agricultural systems. System dynamics is an approach to simulation originally developed by Forester at MIT. Forester initially focused his approach on industrial systems, but now this approach is applied to many fields, containing ecosystems and agricultural systems. The system description is translated into the level and rate equations of a system dynamics model. “Stella” and “Vensim”, which are software for construction and execution of system dynamics, have good graphical user interface. The purpose of modeling is understanding and prediction. In agriculture, prediction of yield or plague of harmful insects is important. If predicted results by models are not suitable, managements are changed so as to take better results.