Assessing the Risk for Development of Deep Vein Thrombosis among Chinese Patients using the 2010 Caprini Risk Assessment Model: A Prospective Multicenter Study

Abstract

Aim: We sought to validate the 2010 Caprini risk assessment model (RAM) in risk stratification for deep vein thrombosis (DVT) prophylaxis among Chinese bedridden patients.

Methods: We performed a prospective study in 25 hospitals in China over 9 months. Patients were risk-stratified using the 2010 Caprini RAM.

Results: We included a total 24,524 patients. Fresh DVT was found in 221 patients, with overall incidence of DVT 0.9%. We found a correlation of DVT incidence with Caprini score according to risk stratification (χ² =196.308, P＜0.001). Patients in the low-risk and moderate-risk groups had DVT incidence ＜0.5%. More than half of patients with DVT were in the highest risk group. Compared with the low-risk group, risk was 2.10-fold greater in the moderate-risk group, 3.34-fold greater in the high-risk group, and 16.12-fold greater in the highest-risk group with Caprini scores ≥ 9. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.74 (95% confidence interval, 0.71–0.78; P＜0.01) for all patients. A Caprini score of ≥ 5 points was considered the criterion of a reliably increased risk of DVT in surgical patients with standard thromboprophylaxis. Predicting DVT using a cumulative risk score ≥ 4 is recommended for nonsurgical patients.

Conclusions: Our study suggested that the 2010 Caprini RAM can be effectively used to stratify hospitalized Chinese patients into DVT risk categories, based on individual risk factors. Classification of the highest risk levels using a cumulative risk score ≥ 4 and ≥ 5 provides significantly greater clinical information in nonsurgical and surgical patients, respectively.