Abstract
To revise train operational control rule under gales, it needs to show that the safety under the rule is equal or higher than that of rule applied currently. Therefore, it needs to evaluate the probability "When train operation is conducted, severe wind that is higher than the critical wind velocity for overturning appear in the section under applying the train operation control rule", quantitatively. To do this, it needs to consider not only the probability of wind velocity occurrence but also the probability of wind time fluctuations. In order to evaluate the probability, we calculated the probability that gales occur at a section during train operations using functions of distribution of wind velocity occurrence and wind time fluctuations approximated by observed wind data. The authors assumed a section where wind velocity observed, and compared some train operational methods by calculating the probability.
