Evaluation of heatstroke risk based on meteorological simulations by WRF using pseudo global warming method

Comparison between Tokyo and Sendai in the 2050s

Abstract

This study aims to quantify the spatial distribution of outdoor heatstroke risk in Tokyo and Sendai during the summer season in the 2050s. To predict the spatial distribution of the WBGT, mesoscale meteorological simulations were performed by the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) using pseudo global warming method. In the prediction results, the daily maximum Wet-Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) increased in the whole area, and the number of people transported by ambulance due to heatstroke increased about 2.4 times in 2050s compared with 2000s in both Tokyo and Sendai.