Proposal of Strong Wind Damage Probability Model in Typhoon Jebi 2018

Abstract

In this study, the application of the Weibull distribution based on the weakest link model to the distribution of strong wind damage in southern Osaka Prefecture in Typhoon Jebi, that occurred in 2018, .was examined. As a result of dividing the disaster area into orthogonal grids and analyzing it, it was found that the cumulative damage probability based on the maximum wind speed squared value for each housing density follows the Weibull distribution and each Weibull parameters were decided by housing density. Moreover, It was shown that the damage probability model using this relationship matches the observed cumulative damage probability well. A, which is multiplied by the Weibull distribution, could be affected by the period from the disaster to the aeronautical survey.