Early Evacuation Promotion Nudges for Heavy Rain Disasters

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the effectiveness of nudge messages which are used to encourage early evacuation during heavy rain disasters. Based on a questionnaire survey of Hiroshima residents, we analyze the impact of behavioral economic messages on residents' willingness to evacuate when a disaster occurs hypothetically. We also analyze the heterogeneity of message effectiveness. In addition to that, we analyze the changes of residents' willingness and behavior in the long-term with the follow-up survey conducted 8 months after the original survey. The results show that messages which communicate social norms and potential externalities in terms of expressions of loss or gain are effective in activating the decision to evacuate immediately. On the other hand, based on the results of the analysis of the follow-up survey, messages which indicate potential externalities in terms of gain, lead residents to intention to evacuate and preparation behavior in the long-term.