2018 Volume 45 Issue 1 Pages 49-58
In this paper, we analyze the current inflation perceptions, the formation mechanism of the 5-year inflation expectations, and their heterogeneity by gender and age with Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) based on “Survey on consciousness of individual investors” conducted in February 2016. We find that 1) if the current anxiety, which is a latent variable related to anxiety about the current Japanese economy and the state of household, is higher, the current inflation perceptions become higher; 2) the current inflation perceptions also affect the 5- year inflation expectations; and 3) “future anxiety” doesn't directly affect inflation expectations. 4) If the “future anxiety” become stronger, the inflation expectations are boosted through “current anxiety” and inflation perceptions. 5) Young people and elderly people have higher inflation perceptions. This U-shaped tendency could be explained by their strong “current anxiety.” 6) Inflation expectations tend to be higher in the 50s and 60s regardless of their strong future and current anxiety. 7) Male's inflation perceptions tend to be low, but another analysis shows that there is no gender difference in inflation expectations.
