Prediction of the Probability of Overflow by Predicting Heavy Rainfall Assuming a Rise in Temperature

Abstract

In recent years, heavy rainfall has been increasing in all regions of Japan due to rising temperatures caused by climate change. In addition, many reservoirs throughout Japan are aging and have weak management systems. Against this background, the risk of reservoir failure due to heavy rainfall is expected to increase in all regions of Japan in the future. These factors make it important to assess the risk of reservoir breaches assuming future temperature increases. In this study, for the purpose of contributing Rational decision making for reservoir renovation, using the Database for Policy Decision making for Future climate change (d4PDF), predict the heavy rainfall with rising temperatures and use the data of rainfall to calculate the probability.