A Study on the Influence of Uncertainty of Various Conditions in Liquefaction Determination for the Tokyo Bay Coastal Area

Abstract

There is a concern that the liquefaction hazard assessment in the Specification for Highway Bridges is subject to fluctuations due to uncertainties that affect the presence or absence of liquefaction. In this study, we evaluated the uncertainty of various conditions included in liquefaction risk assessment in a 250m square area and its effect on the accuracy of the liquefaction risk assessment. As a result, it was shown that the liquefaction hazard level may differ depending on the location even within the area. The calculation of the probability of exceeding the level based on the reliability theory confirmed that the reliability of the risk assessment is ensured because the probability converges to some extent even when the information on the liquefaction resistance of the ground is uncertain. On the other hand, if the information on the stress resultant and resistance is not appropriate, the accuracy of the judgment will be reduced.