Abstract
In this paper, we propose a new model of human hypothesis testing process. The model predicts a sequence of testing when people continuously receive positive results that confirm the hypothesis. First we constructed a Bayesian model which addresses 5 situations to be tested based on information theory. In a simulation, we identified 5 qualitative characteristics of the model's behavior, some of which were corroborated in a subsequent experiment. The results of the experiment, however, also suggested that the participants did not correctly estimate the size of the hypothesis. By reconstructing the model, we simplified the model to explain participants' data. As a consequence, we found that a much simpler model can sufficiently explain the data. In conclusion, it was suggested that people are roughly Bayesian but they use heuristic strategies in hypothesis testing.
