Empirical Data Analysis and Simulation Modeling for Evacuation Movement with the Presence of Irregular Non-Continuous Exterior Stairs

Abstract

Studies on evacuation behavior are often based on regular favorable scenarios, but more urban areas are adversely affected by natural disasters, many of them under extreme geographic conditions, and very little is known on how these conditions affect evacuation processes, especially in communities with neither experience nor disaster education.

We collected empirical data during announced evacuation practices in a landslide-prone urban area from La Paz, Bolivia. Based on this experiment, we measured time, velocity and participants’ behavior, then process results and input them as parameters to a 3-dimensional (3D) agent-based evacuation simulation model of the evacuation practice location to simulate real scenario evacuations focused on community residents walking on stairs and steep streets.

Our objective is to explain procedures for simulating two evacuation cases with different premises and to compare results from the two.

Results show that one case is more effective simply by following a simple rule of evacuation path selection. Our ultimate purpose is to create a compelling graphic tool for teaching persons about early short-term evacuation, including the importance of early planned evacuation. It also provides persons with opportunities participate in virtual drills.