Modeling of Information Flow for Early Warning in Mount Merapi Area, Indonesia

Abstract

Indonesia’s Mount Merapi is one of the world’s most active, dangerous volcanoes. Its 2010 eruption – the largest following the 20^th century – and succeeding 2011 lahar events killed 389 persons and injured and displaced many more. One way to mitigate a disaster’s impact is the provision of reliable information to the public through a well-established early warning system (EWS). A well-managed information flow network is the key to delivering early warning information, however, there is a lack of understanding on the information transfer down to the citizens. In addition, implementing the 2007 disaster management law may have affected Merapi’s EWS. This study reinvestigates Merapi’s EWS information flow through the construction of an information flow network. A single information flow network was difficult to construct due to the inconsistency of structures per district. Different networks had to be constructed for volcanic eruptions and lahars in each district. Inconsistencies were also found in the roles of the agencies that determine when evacuation orders would be issued. The system also had data transfer gaps and vulnerabilities such as redundancies, mistransfers and bottlenecks. Its use of forecasting information as a basis for decision-making must be reviewed for lahar information flow networks. Improving Merapi’s EWS must involve handling these issues.