Using Agent Simulations to Evaluate the Effect of a Regional BCP on Disaster Response

Abstract

The 2016 Kumamoto earthquake caused severe damage to economic activities and livelihood of residents by disrupting the supply chains of common resources, such as food, water, roads, and other infrastructure. This disaster has made recovery difficult for businesses in the region. The importance of addressing BCP in regional areas was made clear by the 2004 Niigataken Chuetsu earthquake and the 2007 Niigataken Chuetsu-oki earthquake. The 2011 Greate East Japan earthquake revealed that individual business continuity efforts were interrupted by disruption of common infrastructure. Therefore, a new concept of a region-wide business continuity plans (BCP) that focuses on collaboration among stakeholders, including private corporations, local government, and communities, was urgently required to enhance the resilience of the region against disasters. A new concept of Area BCP was proposed by JICA and Prefectural-scale District BCP was formulated by prefectural governments of Kyoto and Kagawa.

In order to evaluate the effect of the presence of a regional BCP on disaster response, this study focuses on one of the most important elements of a regional BCP: the disaster relief chain information-sharing factor. Based on the supply of relief goods from the distribution center in Tosu City, Saga Prefecture to the evacuation centers in Kumamoto Prefecture during the Kumamoto earthquake, the evaluation was conducted by quantitative analysis using agent simulations of relief logistics.